EIA Propane Analysis

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Darling can provide deep analytics straight to your email or Teams chat bot on key metrics as they become available. For example, you can schedule a prompt for an analysis of an EIA report to your inbox or Teams every Thursday. You can even prompt Darling to generate a product-specific report that combines EIA data, flows analysis and technical analysis on price action.

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In today's prompt, we asked Darling to take the latest EIA weekly numbers and combine them with an analysis of LSEG's flows data, in tandem with a further technical study of General Index price data and determine if US Propane is bullish or bearish.

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Read on for detailed insights.

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Ask Darling

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“Tell me about the latest EIA Propane report, is it bullish or not? Consider in your answer: 1. A technical analysis of the daily prices for Propane Mont Belvieu for the last year until yesterday. 2. The comparison of the daily LPG exports from the USA for the 7 days prior to 3 days ago vs the same 7-day period y-1.”

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Summary Insights

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The latest EIA propane report shows a bullish outlook based on two key factors:

First, Propane Mont Belvieu prices have surged to $0.9775 per gallon (April 29, 2025), representing a significant increase from the yearly average of $0.7974 and showing strong upward momentum.

Second, US LPG exports for April 21-27, 2025, increased by 13.61% year-over-year, indicating robust international demand. Despite a small weekly inventory build, propane stocks remain 8% below the five-year average, further supporting the bullish case.

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Propane Market Analysis: Bullish or Bearish?

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Technical Analysis of Propane Mont Belvieu Prices

Looking at the price data for Propane Mont Belvieu over the past year, there's a clear bullish trend in recent months:

• The most recent price (April 29, 2025) is $0.9775 per gallon
• This represents a $0.0350 increase (3.7%) from the previous day's price of $0.9425
• The current price is significantly higher than the yearly average of $0.7974
• From a statistical perspective, the latest price is approximately 2.25 standard deviations above the mean, indicating exceptional strength
• The price is near the yearly maximum of around $0.98, compared to a minimum of $0.60

This technical picture shows strong upward momentum in Propane Mont Belvieu prices, which is a clearly bullish signal.

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US LPG Export Analysis

Comparing US LPG exports for the week of April 21-27, 2025, versus the same period last year:

• Current period (2025): 1,594.41 KT (19,440,651 barrels)
• Previous year (2024): 1,403.36 KT (17,199,955 barrels)
• Year-over-year increase: 191.05 KT, representing a 13.61% increase

This significant growth in exports indicates strong international demand for US propane, which typically reduces domestic availability and supports higher prices - another bullish factor.

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EIA Report Fundamentals

The latest EIA report (week ending April 25, 2025) shows mixed signals but with underlying bullish fundamentals:

• Inventories: US propane/propylene stocks increased by 0.6 million barrels to 47.2 million barrels (slightly bearish for the week)
• However, inventories remain 8% below the five-year average and significantly lower than the same time last year (56.9 MMbbl) - a bullish factor
• Exports: Propane exports averaged 1,982 thousand barrels per day, higher than the 1,689 thousand barrels per day during the comparable week last year - bullish
• Production: At 2,852 thousand barrels per day, production is higher than last year's 2,796 thousand barrels per day - slightly bearish
• Demand: Product supplied was 878 thousand barrels per day, lower than last year's 1,155 thousand barrels per day - bearish domestically

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Recent Market Developments

According to external sources:

• January 2025 saw record propane consumption of 1.48 million barrels per day, the highest January consumption since 2005 and highest for any month since February 2007, driven by severe cold weather (EIA Today in Energy)
• For the week ending April 11, 2025, there was an unusual withdrawal of 1.3 million barrels from US propane inventories, contrary to expectations of a build (NPGA)
• China's LPG imports from the US are reportedly soaring, indicating strong international demand
• The EIA has revised its Mont Belvieu propane spot price forecast downward to $0.80 per gallon for 2025 and $0.50 per gallon for 2026 (EIA STEO)

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Conclusion: Is the EIA Propane Report Bullish?

Weighing all factors:

1. Technical price analysis: Strongly bullish, with prices near yearly highs and showing strong momentum
2. Export comparison: Bullish, with a 13.61% year-over-year increase in exports
3. Inventory levels: Bullish, with stocks below both last year's levels and the five-year average
4. Weekly inventory change: Slightly bearish (small build)
5. Production vs. demand: Mixed (higher production is bearish, lower domestic demand is bearish, but higher exports are bullish)

The technical price action combined with strong exports and below-average inventories outweigh the bearish signals from the weekly inventory build and domestic demand figures. The market is showing clear signs of strength despite some mixed fundamentals.

Overall assessment: The latest EIA propane report is bullish, primarily driven by strong price action, robust export growth, and tight inventory levels relative to historical norms.