WTI Crude Prompt Battle

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AI models in industry are only useful if 1) they have relevant data, and 2) they understand what is required of them through training in their semantic layer.  

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Today we put to the test the main LLMs in the market vs Darling to show the stark difference between an industry grade AI Agent (Darling) vs the rest.

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Ask Grok┃Gemini┃ChatGPT┃Darling

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"Plot the daily prices of WTI crude with the 10d & 20d sma as well as the 30d vol for the last year. What can you tell me about this?"  

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If the models fail to provide a return, we ask them to provide an explanation as to why. Needless to say, Darling wins hands down.

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Prompt Battle Results

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1. Grok3:  I couldn’t provide specific daily returns for WTI crude oil from June 2, 2024, to June 2, 2025, because I lack access to a complete dataset of daily closing prices for that period. My knowledge is based on general market trends and snapshot data from web sources, such as prices of $62.84 per barrel on May 27, 2025, and $60.69–$60.79 on May 30, 2025, but these are insufficient for calculating precise daily returns over the entire year
2. Gemini 2.5: My purpose is to be helpful and truthful, and in this instance, I failed to do so. I should have been transparent from the beginning about my inability to access real-time financial data to create actual, live plots for you.
3. ChatGPT: While you asked for a plot of WTI daily prices over the last year, along with: 10-day and 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), 30-day historical volatility (realized vol), I instead returned a web-sourced summary with approximate figures, but no actual chart and no precise computed indicators, which falls short of your request.
4. Darling AI:
   WTI Crude: Bearish breakdown with extreme vol spike
   • Range: $84.69 (Jul '24) → $57.87 (May '25) | -31.6% decline over 12mo
   • SMAs: 10d & 20d both trending lower | Strong correlation (0.93/0.88) confirms downtrend
   • Vol explosion: 17.23% → 46.34% peak | Inverse correlation (-0.68) shows stress at lows
   • OPEC+ flood: 411k bpd/mo increases (May-Jul '25) + demand cut to 800k bpd → supply/demand imbalance
   • Current: $60.94 (May 29) near 4yr lows | Vol remains elevated signaling continued uncertainty

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Detailed Insights

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WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis (June 2024 - May 2025)

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Price Action and Moving Averages

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The SQL query successfully retrieved daily WTI crude oil prices for 'Crude Oil WTI Midland (Cushing Cash Expiry)' covering 248 trading days from June 2, 2024, to June 2, 2025. The Python analysis calculated the requested technical indicators:

Price Movement: WTI crude exhibited significant volatility over the year, with prices ranging from a high of $84.69 on July 3, 2024 to a low of $57.87 on May 5, 2025 - representing a dramatic 31.6% decline from peak to trough. The average price over the period was $71.97.

Moving Averages: Both the 10-day and 20-day SMAs effectively tracked the underlying price trends. The 10-day SMA ranged from $60.03 to $83.18, while the 20-day SMA ranged from $61.48 to $82.96. The correlation analysis shows strong positive relationships between price and both SMAs (0.925 for 10-day, 0.882 for 20-day), confirming their effectiveness as trend indicators.

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Volatility Analysis

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The 30-day annualized volatility showed dramatic swings throughout the period, ranging from a low of 17.23% on June 24, 2024 to a peak of 46.34% on May 15, 2025. Notably, there's a strong negative correlation (-0.676) between price and volatility, indicating that periods of lower prices coincided with higher market uncertainty and vice versa.

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Market Context from External Sources

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Recent market data from X confirms the current price environment, with WTI at $60.79 on May 30 and $60.94 on May 29, 2025 (X sources). This aligns with the low-price, high-volatility environment observed in the technical analysis.

Web search results provide crucial context for the price decline observed in the data. OPEC+ has dramatically accelerated production increases, implementing three consecutive monthly hikes of 411,000 bpd in May, June, and July 2025 (Hart Energy). This represents a significant shift from production cuts to increases, explaining the downward price pressure visible in the technical analysis.

Additionally, JP Morgan reduced its 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 800,000 bpd, down 300,000 from previous estimates (JP Morgan). The combination of increased supply and reduced demand growth forecasts creates the fundamental backdrop for the bearish price action observed in the technical indicators.

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Technical Pattern Recognition

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The data reveals a clear bearish trend from the July 2024 highs, with both moving averages acting as resistance during attempted rallies. The spike in volatility to 46.34% in mid-May 2025 coincided with prices testing multi-year lows, suggesting capitulation-like selling pressure. The inverse relationship between price and volatility is particularly pronounced during this period, indicating heightened market stress during the decline.